Bitcoin (BTC): $19,884 as a key token
BTC rate: $19,158 (previous week: $20,684)
Short term resistances/targets: 19,720/$20,036, $20,431, $20,848, $21,373, $21,892, $22,834 / $23,289, $24,291, $25,498, $26,170, $26,734, $27,696, $29,696 / $28,104, $6,2097, $6,2,604 $32,383
Short-term supports: $19,212/18,950, $18,585, $17,860/17,567, $16,180, $14,838, $14,311, $13,858
4-hour chart Price analysis based on the pair of values BTC/USD on Coinbase
- Bitcoin price missed the breakout above the central resistance area at $21,892 again in the last few days. As a result, the key crypto currency slipped back to the support from the daily chart at USD 18,950 on Thursday morning.
- The buyer side must now do everything possible to stabilize the BTC price above USD 19,212 at the end of the day.
- The continued strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently having a negative impact on Bitcoin’s price performance.
- The renewed price weakness of Bitcoin is also due to the high correlation with the US stock indices Nasdaq100 and S&P500.
- After a recovery in the previous week, both indices are again trending more clearly south and threaten to start again at their lows for the year. A dip below these important price levels is likely to lead to global follow-up selling.
Mixed picture on the indicators page
- Both indicators, the RSI as well as the MACD, have activated sell signals again on the 4-hour chart, however, the RSI is already trading in oversold territory again. On a daily basis, both indicators threaten to generate fresh sell signals again if the price weakness persists – a bearish signal.
- The Fear and Greed Index also slipped back deep into the extreme “fear zone” with a value of 11.
- Although Bitcoin was able to end the past trading week with a green weekly candle, with a view to the current weekly candle, another red candle for the current trading week cannot be ruled out. Only with a bounce back above the USD 21,000 mark can the bulls avert this weekly bearish development.
- Tomorrow, Friday, July 1st, we should plan again with increased volatility. In addition to the announcement of the EU consumer prices, the figures for the ISM purchasing managers’ index in the USA are still waiting on Friday afternoon.
Bullish Scenario (BTC):
- The failed escape attempt on June 26 left its mark.
- Once again, the bull camp failed to generate a first important liberation.
- In the short term, the buyer camp must now try to heave the BTC price back above the yellow resistance area between USD 18,950 and USD 19,212 at the end of the day.
- If Bitcoin can then stabilize above this zone on a 4-hour basis, a directional decision in the range between USD 19,720 and USD 20,036 is likely. If a reconquest is successful and Bitcoin dynamically breaks through the red downward trend line, yesterday’s daily high at USD 20,431 will come into focus.
- The supertrend and the golden pocket of the current corrective movement between USD 20,227 and USD 20,365 also run just below. Without price momentum, it is likely to be a rocky road for the buyer side.
Back towards last week’s high
- Only when Bitcoin sustainably overcomes yesterday’s daily high will additional price targets of USD 20,848 and USD 21,373 come into the eyes of investors.
- If the USD 21,373 is successfully recaptured, another directional decision is to be planned in the turquoise resistance zone.
- A sustained breakout above this strong resistance area will activate further upside potential towards the red resist zone between USD 22,834 and USD 23,289. In this area at the latest, the bulls could again take more profits from the table. In addition, the bears will do everything possible to cap the BTC price in this area.
- Should the buyer camp be able to generate enough buying pressure to break through this area sustainably, a follow-up movement up to USD 24,291 is to be planned.
- Here the BTC course should fail at the first attempt. In addition to the EMA200 (blue), the 161 Fibonacci extension of the current trend movement is also running at 24,526 USDF.
Recovery towards $28,000 is taking shape
- If Bitcoin overcomes this zone without any significant setbacks, the recovery movement will continue to gain momentum.
- Although there are also potential reversal levels at USD 25,498 and USD 26,170, the price action indicates the chance of a direct increase to the 61 Fibonacci retracment at USD 26,734.
- If Bitcoin also overcomes this price mark, a retest of the orange zone between USD 27,696 and the tear-off edge at USD 28,104 is increasingly likely.
- At most, Bitcoin could even briefly touch USD 28,607 before planning another setback southwards.
- If Bitcoin can also recapture this strong resistance area in the coming trading weeks, the key crypto currency should target further resistance levels at USD 29,256 and USD 29,975.
- As mentioned in the last price analysis, the maximum bullish price targets for the near future are USD 31,750 and USD 32,383. Only a sustained breakout above USD 32,383 brightens the chart image again more clearly in favor of the bull camp.
Bearish Scenario (BTC):
- Despite an interim recovery in the previous week, the bears are still not letting up. The fact that Bitcoin could be stopped again in the turquoise zone once again underlines the strength of the seller side.
- Bitcoin has slipped back below $19,884 again in the last 24 hours of trading. This indicates that the bears don’t seem to have had enough.
- As long as the seller side can cap Bitcoin in the gray resistance zone in the short term, further sell-off attempts can be expected.
- If the support mark at USD 18,950 is undercut by the daily closing price, and the 23 Fibonacci retracment at USD 18,585 does not provide any support either, a relapse to USD 17,860 becomes increasingly likely. A retest of the annual low at USD 17,567 must therefore also be taken into account at any time.
Further price falls must be planned
- If the classic stock market also tends towards new annual lows due to persistent fears of inflation and interest rates, Bitcoin could target support at USD 16,180. This course mark is taken from the daily chart.
- The bulls may attempt another reversal at this support level. If this attempt fails and Bitcoin falls below this support level at the end of the day, another significant slide in the price can be expected.
- The green support area between USD 14,837 and USD 13,858 should act like a magnet on the Bitcoin price. This support area continues to represent the maximum bearish price target for the summer months.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.
The chart images were created using trading view created.
USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.96.
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