New US Lows – Will the Downside Continue?

  • Nasdaq-100 – WKN: A0AE1X – ISIN: US6311011026 – Price: 11,967.56 points (Nasdaq)
  • Dow Jones – WKN: 969420 – ISIN: US2605661048 – Price: $31,834.11 (NYSE)
  • S&P 500 – WKN: A0AET0 – ISIN: US78378X1072 – Price: 3,935.18 points (S&P)
  • Gold – WKN: 965515 – ISIN: XC0009655157 – Price: $1,851,59000/oz. (FXCM)
  • Brent Crude Oil – WKN: 967740 – ISIN: XC0009677409 – Price: 107.49500 $/bbl. (FXCM)
  • Open End Turbo on NASDAQ 100 – WKN: TT29PV – ISIN: DE000TT29PV8 – Price: €9,680 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on NASDAQ 100 – WKN: HG3AZD – ISIN: DE000HG3AZD9 – Price: €9,580 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on Dow Jones Industrial Average – WKN: HG3AX6 – ISIN: DE000HG3AX62 – Price: €1,320 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on Dow Jones Industrial Average – WKN: HG2LP9 – ISIN: DE000HG2LP94 – Price: €2,950 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on the S&P 500 – WKN: HG2MMN – ISIN: DE000HG2MMN3 – Price: €3,940 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on the S&P 500 – WKN: HG3AXV – ISIN: DE000HG3AXV6 – Price: €2,010 (HSBC)

Nasdaq100

The Nasdaq 100 has been on a downward slide since its all-time high of 16,764 points in November 2021. The index fell back to the support zone between 12,439 and 12,208 points, i.e. to the high from September 2020. The index tried to form a small bottom there this week. However, this attempt failed yesterday. The index slipped back below this support area yesterday after inflation numbers.

This indicates a continuation of the downward movement since November 2021. However, there is still important support at 11,855 points. Because should the index reach this mark, the downward movement from November 2021 to March 14, 2021 and the downward movement from March 29, 2022 would be of the same length on a percentage basis. At such points, instruments turn again and again.

The downward movement in the Nasdaq 100 is in a crucial phase. If the index returns quickly above 12,439 points, then a major recovery could start. An increase towards 13,542 points or even 14,342 points would then be possible.

However, should the index fall below 11,855 points, there would be a risk of further downward movement. The next stopping points would be the EMA 200 (weekly basis) at 11,355 points and the September 2020 low at 10,678 points and the February 2020 high at 9,736 points.

To speculate on an upward movement in the Nasdaq 100, one could use the leverage certificate with the WKN: TT29PV. This leverage certificate comes from HSBC, the term is open-ended and the leverage is 11.96. In order to speculate on a further downward movement, one could use the leverage certificate with the WKN: HG3AZD. This also comes from HSBC, the term is open end and the leverage is 11.61.
Nasdaq 100 chart analysis

Dow Jones

After a weak opener yesterday, the Dow Jones initially recovered but quickly came under pressure and fell throughout the trading day. The index fell below the support zone between 32,272 and 32,009 points and thus to a new low in the downward movement since the all-time high of 36,952 points on January 05, 2022.

This confirmed this downward movement. Yesterday’s pullback can be seen as a new sell signal. In the next few days and weeks, there is a risk of a further downward movement to around 30,997 points and later to the old all-time high from February 2020 at 29,568 points.

A first approach to an improvement in the chart would be a breakout above 32,752 points. In this case, a recovery of up to 34,095 points would be possible.

To speculate on a further downward movement in the Dow Jones, one could use the leverage certificate with the WKN: HG3AX6. This aggressive certificate comes from HSBC, the term is open-ended and the leverage is 22.02. A slightly less speculative variant would be the leverage certificate with the WKN: HG2LP9. This certificate was also issued by HSBC, the term is open-ended and the leverage is 10.08.
Dow Jones chart analysis
Chart Analysis of New US Lows - Will the Downward Movement Continue?

S&P500

The S&P 500 marked its current all-time high on January 4, 2021 at 4,818 points. Since then it has been on a downward trend. In the first step, the index fell to a low of 4,114 points on February 24, 2022. Since a recovery to 4,637 points, the second phase has been in the downward movement. The index not only fell below 4,114 points at the end of the day on Monday, but also broke through the next important support zone at 4,056 points. For the past two days, the index has rallied to this level in early trade, but has bounced lower on both occasions, marking a new low in the down move since the all-time high.

The break of the mark at 4,056 points gave a continuation signal for the downward movement since the all-time high. This signal is already having an effect. A possible target area for this move down would be the 3,591-3,588 point area, the September 2020 high.

In order for the chart picture to improve again, the index would have to return at least above 4,056 points, better still above 4,114 points. Then a recovery towards the EMA 200 could start at currently 4,377 points.

To speculate on further downward movement in the S&P 500, one could use the leverage certificate from HSBC with the WKN: HG2MMN. The term is open-ended and the leverage is 9.34. A much more speculative variant would be the leverage certificate from HSBC with the WKN: HG3AXV. Here, too, the term is open-ended, the leverage is 18.12.
S&P 500 Chart Analysis
Chart Analysis of New US Lows - Will the Downward Movement Continue?

gold

Gold hit an all-time high of $2,074 in August 2020. A long correction movement then started, which found its low at USD 1,676 quite early in March 2021. But it was not until mid-February 2022 that the correction movement was broken out.

Gold then shot up to $2,070, almost the all-time high. Gold has been in a pullback to the corrective move since March 08, 2022. With yesterday’s low of USD 1,831, gold has now fully exploited the maximum scope. A recovery set in there, but there was no return above the EMA 200 at currently USD 1,858.

Gold is currently in a crucial phase. If the precious metal turns up now, there could be a large multi-month rally. Possible targets are $2,195 and $2,400.

However, if gold stably falls below USD 1,833, the bullish scenario would be gone. In this case, gold would swing into a large trading range between $2,074 and $1,676. And within this range, there could be a continuation of the downward movement since March 08 towards USD 1,782 and USD 1,676.

gold
Chart Analysis of New US Lows - Will the Downward Movement Continue?

Brent

Brent has been in a massive rally since April 2020 lows of $15.93. In January 2022, it managed to break out of the long-term downtrend since the all-time high set in 2008 at $147.50. Brent traded at a high of $133.08 on March 9th.

Since then, the oil price has been in a consolidation. In doing so, he repeatedly touched on an old upper pullback line. This is currently USD 102.09. Also yesterday, Brent turned back up around this trendline. In addition to this trend line, the previous consolidation low at USD 96.90 also plays an important role.

If Brent manages to break out of $113.96, the consolidation could be over. Then there could be another rally towards USD 113.08 and possibly even the all-time high at USD 147.50.

However, if Brent falls below USD 102.09, the bulls will get their first warning shot. If Brent dips below USD 96.90, it will give a sell-signal towards USD 86.71. This would put Brent back on the broken long-term downtrend from the all-time high.

Brent chart analysis
Chart Analysis of New US Lows - Will the Downward Movement Continue?

I wish all readers a nice and successful day and lots of fun with the tradathlon.

Note on transparency: The derivatives presented in the article are selected by the editors. However, we work with selected issuers who have a business relationship with BörseGo AG.

Please note: trading in derivatives involves a significant risk and can, under certain circumstances, lead to the total loss of the capital invested.