New major incursion of Chinese fighters into Taiwan’s air defense zone

An analysis of the American magazine Foreign Policy considered that the friendly relations that the Middle East witnessed recently, between countries that were hostile to some of them, “will not last long.”

The “good relations”, which were translated by visits and deals between countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and even Israel and the UAE, “will not last because they respond to an immediate interest only,” according to the analysis.

Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia, where he met King Salman and his crown prince, after a rupture over the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, at his country’s consulate in Istanbul.

Turkish politics..no red lines

After lean years in Turkish-Saudi relations, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Riyadh marked an important turning point, and a step towards normalizing relations between the two countries after a rupture, not without harsh mutual accusations.

A little earlier, in late April, Iranian media confirmed that senior security officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran had met for a fifth round of normalization talks under the auspices of the Iraqi and Omani governments.

In March, the President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, visited Turkey, the first visit of a senior Israeli official to Ankara in 14 years.

In the same month, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad participated in the Expo 2020 in Dubai and met with Emirati leaders.

In February, Erdogan paid a visit to the United Arab Emirates, after the crown prince of Abu Dhabi traveled to Turkey last November.

During the winter, the Emiratis and the Iranians exchanged trade and investment delegations.

All this diplomatic activity, which indicates a march full of signs of regional de-escalation and realignment, does not indicate that there is a will that heralds a new era of peace, love and understanding in the Middle East,” according to the author of the analysis, Stephen Cook.

The writer believes that the financial crisis in the region is driving this new climate, as everyone seeks to create “investments and economic cooperation instead of proxy wars.”

Cook believes that Ankara is doing the bulk of the “reset” of the region, “which is very logical” to him.

How do?

Erdogan’s economic mismanagement, according to the writer, contributed to the lira crisis that lasted for years, and with inflation reaching nearly 70 percent, the Turkish leader pledged to develop the economy out of a disaster of his own making.

Inflation in Turkey exceeds expectations .. “the highest in two decades”

Data showed, on Thursday, that the annual inflation rate in Turkey jumped to 69.97 percent in April, exceeding expectations and the highest level of inflation in two decades, driven by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the rise in commodity prices after the collapse of the lira late last year, according to Reuters.

Therefore, Erdogan abandoned his hostile rhetoric toward the Emiratis and moved the trial of the people accused of killing Jamal Khashoggi to Saudi Arabia, ending any possibility of holding them accountable in Turkey.

This is the geopolitical version of Turkey’s new business, hoping to get some investments from the massive Gulf sovereign wealth funds, business deals, currency swaps, and possibly drone sales.

Washington’s turn

Contrary to the above, the analysis considers that the Turkish government’s rapprochement with Israel is not related to money, as officials in Ankara believe, according to him, that if they reached with the Israeli government, this would ease the pressure on them in Washington.

In this regard, he wrote, “The Turks seem to believe that pro-Israel and Jewish organizations in the United States will defend on their behalf if Erdogan welcomes his Israeli counterpart and exchanges phone calls with him.”

But there is little evidence that groups defending American Jews or supporters of Israel actually want to help Erdogan get Turkey out of US sanctions over Ankara’s purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile.

De-escalation with Iran

Regarding de-escalation signals with Iran, Emiratis reportedly expressed interest in investment opportunities there, particularly the renewable energy project.

The Saudis and the Iranians did not reach this point, but the meetings between them are still continuing, which raises hope that the grounds for an agreement can be reached between Riyadh and Tehran.

After a decade of regional leaders describing each other as terrorists, accusing each other of being sources of regional instability, and arming opponents on the other side, the current statements and meetings herald a new era “very special to the extent that it is hard to believe.”

The fifth round of the Saudi-Iranian dialogue… Managing the conflict is a prelude to containing it

Last week, the fifth round of the Saudi-Iranian dialogue ended in Baghdad, with Omani participation this time, and with an evaluation of the results, which was dominated by “positiveness” and a spirit of optimism, while the sixth round is expected to heal at the political and diplomatic level, after the first five rounds remained confined to security aspects. Bilateral and regional.

This new situation, imposed by the current data, where most of the leaders came to the idea that they are unable to impose their will on their opponents by force.

Therefore, regional leaders are now trying a different approach, according to the same analysis, although this is difficult to achieve.

The Emiratis, for example, “barely fell in love with Erdogan,” according to Cook, and the “fake smile” on the face of the Saudi crown prince in one of the photos taken during the Turkish president’s recent visit, indicates that the Saudis, like the Emiratis, are well aware of the intentions of the Emiratis. Erdogan, according to the author.

For their part, the Israelis do not trust the Turks, because, according to the analysis, they do not trust Erdogan, but it seems that they have accepted his game, especially if they can get something through the “urgent need of the Turkish leader to improve his image in Washington.”

On the occasion of Eid al-Fitr and Israeli Independence Day.. Greetings exchanged between Erdogan and Herzog

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Israeli counterpart, Yitzhak Herzog, exchanged blessings on Eid al-Fitr and Israel’s Independence Day, according to Israeli media, quoting a statement from Herzog’s office.

At the same time, the Israelis are not willing to give up their strong economic and security ties with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, long-time foes of Turkey, in order to improve relations with Ankara.

“This is similar to Egypt’s approach to Turkey’s coordinated and so far unsuccessful efforts to court Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi,” the report says.