Is the battle for the $40,000 price lost?

Bitcoin (BTC): Correction on the financial markets puts Bitcoin price under pressure

BTC rate: $38,551 (previous day: $37,703)

Short-term resistances/goals: $39,322, $39,854, $40,019/40,190, $40,851, $41,729, $42,258, $42,972, $43,330, $43,735, $44,216, $44,853/45,087, $46,196/46,521

Short-term supports: $38,591, $38,250, $37,703, $37,227, $36,381

Reasons for the price weakness in Bitcoin:

  • The bitcoin price also fell significantly in the course of a significant sell-off in the US technology index Nasdaq. Missed sales and profit expectations after the publication of the latest quarterly figures from large technology companies such as Google and Microsoft further reinforced this trend.
  • Bitcoin temporarily fell back into the green support area between USD 37,228 and USD 38,591 and marked a new low 30-day low at USD 37,703.
  • The formation of a new monthly low for Bitcoin caused many small investors to panic sell yesterday afternoon. More than 10,000 BTC were sent to crypto exchanges and sold in a matter of hours, adding to the downside.
  • Another factor is the continued strength of the US dollar. This is likely to expand further as a result of the recent announcement of stronger interest rate hikes. The dollar index DXY subsequently marked a new 2-year high this week.
  • This outperformance also causes all other assets that are traded against the US dollar to drop significantly in price. The prices of the precious metals gold and silver, as well as the euro/US dollar currency pair, also came under significant pressure. The euro rate is historically low, not far from the issue rate at the time of the introduction of the euro 20 years ago.
  • The fact that interest rates on US government bonds continue to rise at the same time and that institutional investors are threatening to take an interest in risky asset classes also has a negative effect on the price development of bitcoins.
  • A bright spot for the bulls is the massive sale of bitcoins by retail investors. Retail investors collectively sold more than 10,000 bitcoin on various crypto exchanges yesterday Tuesday. This “capitulation” by small investors has marked a trend reversal several times in the past.

Bullish Scenario (BTC):

  • After a weak start to the week, Bitcoin was able to join the technical countermovement on the classic financial market in the last few hours of trading, but it has already bounced back south on the EMA50 (orange).
  • The bulls must now do everything they can to maneuver the BTC price back through the EMA50 and the supertrend above USD 39,567 at the end of the hour. The upper Bollinger band in the hourly chart is also currently running at this resistance level.
  • If this price level can be regained in the long term, and the EMA200 (blue) at USD 39,854 is also overcome, the lower edge of the purple resistance area will come into focus again. Here is the 23 Fibonacci retracement of the current corrective move.
  • If this area is broken, there will be a first short-term directional decision in the area of ​​yesterday’s daily high at USD 40,851.
  • If stabilization above this is successful, a follow-up movement to the 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 41,729 is likely. A jump above this resist activates the cross resistance of the horizontal line and the red downtrend line as the next upside target.

First sign of possible stabilization

  • Stabilization above USD 42,258 is not to be expected on Wednesday. The previous week’s high is also paired with the 50 Fibonacci retracement at USD 42,972. A rebound is to be planned for here at the latest.
  • If, contrary to expectations, Bitcoin also sustainably jumps over this resistance cluster and then rises above USD 43,330, the chart picture will brighten for a short time.
  • The bulls will do everything in their power to push Bitcoin up to the 61 Fibonacci retracement at $44,216.
  • Once again, investors are likely to realize more profits.
  • If the Bitcoin price breaks through the blue resistance area, a preliminary decision will be made in the yellow resist zone.
  • Between USD 44,853 and USD 45,087 again resistance from the sellers is to be planned.
  • A breakout above this zone puts the maximum bullish price target for the coming trading days between USD 46,196 and USD 46,521 back in the eyes of investors.
  • The area around the monthly high remains the maximum target for Bitcoin.

Bearish Scenario (BTC):

  • Since the last price analysis on April 19, Bitcoin has corrected into the green support area. Although the key crypto currency is recovering somewhat from this sell-off, as long as the USD 39,322 mark is not recaptured in the long term, a fall back towards the weekly low of USD 37,703 is conceivable at any time.
  • If this price mark is retested, another fight between bulls and bears can be expected.
  • If Bitcoin falls below the night low of USD 37,703 per hour and the lower edge of the green support zone is broken, the sell-off expands to the maximum short-term correction target of USD 36,381. A break below this support level is not to be planned on the first attempt.
  • Should the course correction on the global financial markets continue to expand in the coming period, Bitcoin could, however, fall back to USD 34,437 or even to the low for the year at USD 32,941 in the medium term.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using trading view created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.94.

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